January 15, 2009
DFA Presentation to TFC Clients
Jim Joslin's Introductory Remarks
On the evening of January 15th, TFC and Aequitas Investment Advisors jointly welcomed some sixty clients to a presentation by Weston Wellington, Dimensional Fund Advisors' (DFA) Director of Research. Held at the Metro Meeting Center on Federal Street, Weston explained why investors owe it to themselves to understand the simple but powerful forces shaping the behavior of capital markets the world over. Sharing his unique historical perspective, he offered a number of guideposts by which investors might filter the sensationalism in the financial media. He also identified a series of important factors which will more than likely improve the odds of achieving a successful long-term investment experience.
Part of the evening was also devoted to how DFA's passive fund management approach is integrated into TFC's client portfolio strategies. As discussed by TFC's Chairman and CEO, Jim Joslin, "our clients' balanced portfolios are built around a value tilt; we lean toward smaller companies and take the global view. DFA's approach in turn is closely tied to the early and continuing academic work emanating from the University of Chicago that DFA founders, Rex Sinquefield and David Booth, apply to DFA's stable of funds. Today, DFA's passive techniques are used in roughly 80 funds across approximately 40 strategies with a combined value of $110 billion. This money is invested for institutions, governments, and investment advisors like yours throughout the world. In our opinion, DFA is the premier designer of passive, structured asset class investment vehicles.
You can find their mutual funds in the Wall Street Journal, but DFA allocates nothing in its P&L to advertising, and there is no 800 number for shareholder inquiries. For retail investors, DFA's minimum initial fund participations start at $2.0 million. If individuals call DFA headquarters in Santa Monica, or their office in Austin, to inquire about investing, they are politely told the firm is only able to provide advice to a limited number of professional investors. Their annual report reflects a frugal approach and a focus on hard facts: over 200 plain-paper pages of tables and charts, but not a single photograph. Their website (www.DFAUS.com) is rich in content, and although clearly aimed at the investment profession, provides valuable insights into how investment markets behave.
Dimensional's investment strategies and processes are equally unorthodox. On behalf of its clients, the firm invests in over 12,000 companies in forty countries. But the firm employs no research analysts recommending stocks to buy or sell, no economists forecasting oil prices or interest rates, and no strategists suggesting when to buy gold, bonds, or real estate. The Director of Investment Strategy doesn't even come to the office regularly - he is a full-time finance professor at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College, in Hanover, New Hampshire."
In his 2008 annual report letter commenting on the financial markets' behavior in 2008, DFA's CEO, David Booth, said, " . . . Although the broad diversification in our portfolios didn't prevent negative performance this year, we believe it helped our shareholders avoid the extreme losses experienced by investors who concentrated their holdings in individual companies, industry sectors, or markets. The unpredictability of stock prices also makes it important for investors to take a hard look at their own portfolios and determine how much risk and what types of risk they should take. Investors who hold asset mixes that accurately reflect their tolerance for risk are better able to withstand down markets. Nobody knows when the capital markets will recover, but over time we can expect them to again offer a premium to investors who are willing to invest in relatively risky assets such as stocks. My view is that investors who have already paid for risk should stay invested and earn the return that can be expected when markets turn around. If markets continue to be so volatile, it's also important to understand that pulling money out of stocks, even for short periods of time, can result in significant missed opportunities."
Another of DFA's approaches is that its trading desk is known as one of the most creative and toughest bargainers in the global investment markets; a reputation that is no disadvantage when transacting on behalf of clients.
This approach may sound like an unlikely recipe for either business or investment success. But the firm has prospered since its founding over twenty-seven years ago, and the ideas underpinning their investment strategies reflect new ways of thinking about money and markets that have permanently reshaped the world of investing. Since joining the select group of investment advisors working with DFA fifteen years ago, our client portfolios have included DFA funds in both the equity and fixed income segments of their balanced accounts. We very much value our long-term relationship with DFA.
Notes from Weston Wellington's Presentation
Beliefs . . .
- DFA believes the markets for publicly traded companies are competitive.
- There are a lot of smart investment professionals out there researching and analyzing the same data.
- Right now there are more hedge funds (8-12K) than there are stocks trading on the NYSE. And that's not including long-only mutual funds.
- All these people are "shuffling through the deck" looking for the best investment ideas.
- At the same time, you have companies looking for the cheapest source of capital available.
- This creates a natural set of buyers and sellers.
- We all want the best returns possible, so we are forced to compete with each other.
- Economists have coined the phrase "there are no orphan stocks", meaning every stock must be held by somebody, and likewise, in every transaction there must be a buyer and a seller.
- This competition sets the "right price" at which buyers and sellers will transact.
- We don't know the "true" right price of a stock; we can only trade on our best estimate of the right price which is constantly changing and ultimately reflects what we believe to be the correct risk/reward trade off of a stock.
- There is no evidence that a reliable way to pick winning stocks exists, with that, DFA believes an inexpensive passive approach is superior for most investors.
The equity premium . . .
- From 1927 - 2008 stocks returned 9.4% verse 3.7% for treasuries which represents a 570 basis point spread.
- From 1990 - 2008 stocks returned 7.4% verse 4.0% for treasuries which represents a 340 basis point spread.
- At first glance these spreads seem significant and worthwhile; a no-brainer.
- A ling graph plotting the monthly return for stocks since 1927 shows a very erratic/volatile line.
- The average monthly return for stocks is only .68 basis points.
- Investors must be willing to accept this volatility to capture the equity premium.
The value premium . . .
- Growth stocks are expensive. They consist of companies with desirable characteristics.
- Value stocks are cheap and usually have one or more undesirable characteristics that make their success more risky.
- If value stocks are riskier than growth then value stocks must have higher expected returns to attract buyers.
- If you buy value stocks, there is a greater chance you will buy a company that blows up or fails.
- The way to avoid this is to buy an extremely well-diversified portfolio of cheap/ value/risky stocks.
- DFA Small Value fund holds roughly 1300 stocks.
Unrewarded risk . . .
- Holding a concentrated portfolio is an unrewarded risk.
- No single stock or sector has a higher expected return than that of the market as a whole, so it makes no sense to take that type of unsystematic risk.
In the past 100 years there have been bear markets just as bad as the current one; this is not unprecedented.
The economic cycle and what is driving stock and bond prices . . .
- Expected cash flows and how the current environment will affect them into the future drives stock prices.
- What will be the level of risk or the price I will pay for these cash flows?
- In good times investors want to take on more risk; in bad times people like to avoid risk.
- Good times and bad times are difficult to predict and time.
- The risk premium persists throughout the entire economic cycle.
At the end of the day . . . diversification is the only free lunch.